The stock market has had its worst start to a year in recent history and things could get worse as recession fears loom. Since World War II there have been 13 recessions—defined as two consecutive quarters of GDP decline–and there have been 3 in the 21st century , according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Some experts say another one could be on the way.
So, how do stocks perform when the economy is faced with a recession? The S&P 500 surprisingly rose an average of 1% during all recession periods since 1945. That’s because markets usually top out before the start of recessions and bottom out before their conclusion. “Prices lead fundamentals—therefore the stock market falling into a decline is traditionally an indication that most investors believe we are headed for a recession,” explains Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist for CFRA Research. “When we do finally fall into a recession, that’s usually a good time to get back into the market.”
Despite the increasingly gloomy outlooks that emerged on Wall Street after the U.S. economy contracted by 1.4% in the first quarter of 2022, economists still widely expect economic growth to remain solid with a rebound in second-quarter GDP of up to 3%. Stovall doesn’t yet see a recession in the cards, though risks are rising: “It’s not a consensus view but it is a whisper story.”
There is no hedge except food and bullets