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More volatility for global stocks as recession concerns pull metals, commodity currencies lower again

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The second half of the year started with more volatility for global stocks on Friday, as recession concerns that have built in recent weeks also pulled metals and commodity currencies lower again

MSCI’s world stocks index has had its worst start to a year since its 1990 creation over the last six months, and an early tumble followed by recovery by both Europe and Wall Street futures pointed to more instability ahead.

Data on Friday showed manufacturing production in the euro zone fell for the first time last month since the initial wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, while inflation numbers hit another record high. The Fed’s rapid rise in interest rates mean the Treasury market took such a beating that Deutsche Bank estimated the half’s performance was the poorest since 1788 – the year the U.S. constitution was ratified.

Moves were turning choppy again on Friday. But the two-year U.S. yield is down almost 14 basis points this week to 2.91%. The 10-year yield is down about 15 bps on the week to 2.99% and Bund yields have dropped to 1.39% from a high of 1.56% on Monday. A string of business surveys on Friday showed China emerging as an outlier as its economy slowly recovers from COVID-19 lockdowns. Factory activity bounced solidly in June against slowdowns in Japan and South Korea and a contraction in Taiwan.

 

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