Certainly, my years of experience and witness of several downturns can add credence. But, the reality is all are different in their causes. Take 1990-1994 as an example. Loose lending by savings and loans and their ultimate demise, overbuilding and Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait catalyzed the boom years of the late 80s to a screeching halt.
Today, the culprits are the pandemic which left us home-bound with stimulus checks and supply chain clogs. The classic case of too many dollars and too few goods took effect, causing consumer prices to spike. Not since the Carter years have we seen inflation this high. First, listings will languish. What flew off the shelves earlier in the year will take longer to lease or sell. Recall, our vacancy is at historic lows. So, this won’t happen next week. But, maybe an offering that generated multiple offers will settle for one or two.