After a hot first half of 2022, many commodity prices are down sharply and crude-oil prices are well off their highs.That’s misguided and short-term thinking, as the energy transition will require a large increase in the mining of industrial metals such as copper and aluminum to power an electricity-based, carbon-free future.Those are the opinions of Kevin Holt, chief investment officer for U.S. value for Invesco who leads several mutual funds including the $9 billion Invesco Comstock ACSTX, -0.
MarketWatch: The economy is slowing, according to many indicators including manufacturing. Are you in the recession camp? Holt: Wind and solar are here to stay. I think most of us believe that the energy transition is a good thing. And then it’s just a question of just, how long does it take? What are the investments and where’s technology today, relative to where we needed to be to make to make this transition realistic?
Holt: I do think that, at least given where technology is today. It really comes down to what have we based our battery technology on? What are the raw materials that go into that? As you look out three to five years, if you believe that electric vehicles are going continue to build traction, we’re going to be short a number of materials like copper. I don’t think people appreciate the value of some of these materials.
Oil companies are exercising discipline now. $75 is the new $55/barrel. Higher fossil prices will incentivize clean energy investments, even if costly.
We still need fossil fuels.
This is a blacksmith opining to investors to keep buying horseshoes & wagons cause Henry Ford is nuts.
There will be no “transition”. It will be a catastrophic failure which we are watching unfold time now.