To make matters worse, the dilemma involving herdsmen is worsening. Some have evolved into violent criminal gangs, or bandits, who kill and kidnap Nigerians and sometimes foreign nationals. In the South of the country, violentThe 2022 federal defence budget was higher than the combined allocations to health and educationthat Nigeria's defence budget has risen by 262% in the past five years, from US$1.72 billion in 2017 to US$4.5 billion in 2021.
So Nigeria's revenue crisis will stifle not only the government's capacity for kinetic warfare, but also its ability to improve the conditions that allow conflicts to emerge. And recent gains made by the military will require resources to prevent their reversal. Beyond insurgencies, civil policing must also be strengthened to help deal with surging crime, which if left unattended, could intersect with violent extremism. This includes offences like kidnapping for ransom, which are sometimesHowever, reforms will be difficult in a low-revenue environment. The government is currently financing its budget deficit through external and domestic debt. But this approach is fast proving unsustainable.
Oil theft is arguably more complicated, requiring significant political will to deal with perpetrators who are often highly placed in the public and private sectors. Taxation is just as tricky. Many Nigerians already pay