The US withdrawal from Afghanistan after two decades of war opened up an opportunity for China to expand its influence and lock down access to the country’s vast mineral deposits. More than a year after US troops left, Afghanistan’s economy is collapsing, 19 million people are at risk of acute hunger and the investment the Taliban were counting on from Beijing hasn’t arrived. Both sides blame the other.
The Taliban have repeatedly said ETIM isn’t operating in Afghanistan and that they “won’t allow anyone to use Afghan soil against any other country,” according to Suhail Shaheen, the head of the Taliban’s political office in Doha. But a UN report in May cites several nations saying ETIM remains a presence in Afghanistan.
The dream of mining riches in Afghanistan dates back centuries. After the US withdrawal, China signaled it would help make it happen—both by activating earlier joint ventures that had stalled and breaking ground on new projects. With many nations pausing support for Afghanistan to see how the Taliban would rule, China was one of the few countries to promise the new regime an economic lifeline.
Also, a project by China National Petroleum Corp. is either not fully operational or making little progress in extracting oil from the Amu Darya basin in northern Afghanistan after getting its contract from the previous government. Building a refinery was part of the deal that never came to fruition.
While the Taliban are trying to restrain the movement of ETIM militants in Afghanistan to satisfy China—such as pressing them back from the border with Xinjiang—they also “worry that if they come down too hard against ETIM, many of their members could end up defecting” to Islamic State, one of the Taliban’s biggest threats, said Jeffery of the ITCT.