Value stocks significantly outperformed growth stocks in the past century, though there have been long stretches that reversed the trend, including the last decade. Growth’s outperformance in recent years means value stocks are now relatively cheaper than at any other time in U.S. history.
This narrative started to break down in mid-August, however, as you can see from the accompanying chart, above. Notice how, in the months prior to then, value stocks’ relative strength over growth tended to rise and fall in a close correlation with the 10-year breakeven inflation rate. This stopped being the case two months ago. Even as the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has trended strongly downward, value stocks’ relative strength has trended strongly upward.
Wall Street’s newfound realization may have come just in time to rescue value stocks from declining inflation expectations. Though high inflation is proving less transitory than many, including the Federal Reserve, initially thought, most believe that inflation will be slowing soon. The consensus of “America’s top business economists,” as polled by Wolters Kluwer’s Blue Chip Economic Indicators, is that the Consumer Price Index will be 3.9% in 2023.
Yes logistics, shipping also low priced, but will be rushed to as supply chain is sorted out.
Finally
Turns out the real money is in insider trading