, the U.S. faces a recession because of the Fed's predicament, Pinto said. The only question is how severe the slowdown will be. That, of course, is being reflected in the markets that Pinto watches daily.
"We're dealing with a market that is pricing the probability of recession and how deep it's going to be," Pinto said. The economic situation this year has been unlike any other in recent history; apart from booming price increases for goods and services, corporate earnings have beenBut profit estimates haven't fallen far enough to reflect what's coming, according to Pinto, and that could mean the market takes another leg down. TheI don't think we've seen the bottom of the market yet," Pinto said.
That could change if the Ukraine war takes a perilous new turn, or tensions with China over Taiwan spill onto the global stage, upending progress on supply chains, among other potential pitfalls. Markets have become more fragile in some ways because post-2008 crisis reforms forced banks to hold more capital tied to trading, which makes markets more likely to seize up during periods of great volatility.
"Real rates should be higher in the next 20 years than they were in the last 20 years," Pinto said. "Nothing crazy, but higher, and that affects many things like the valuations of growth companies."The post-financial crisis era also gave rise to new forms of digital money: cryptocurrencies including bitcoin. While JPMorgan and rivals including
He won't suffer in his recession. Millions of Americans will. He doesn't care.
HUGH_SON How does he - in numerical terms - define a recession? It used to be two negative quarters of GDP. Then for a few weeks this year it was 2 negative quarters of GDP and GDI (Gross Domestic Income) until the data showed Q1 & 2 being that. What is a recession, per JP?
We’ve been in a recession for over a month
Are they short ?
Recession will only make supply chain issues worse. And raising interest rates won’t solve supply chain issues either.
Goldman says we aren’t in one and doesn’t see one in the near future.