How quickly inflation can be brought back to target was a key focus of Governing Council. Most agreed that inflation was turning a corner, but that the picture was mixed, with lower gasoline prices leading the charge but services, food and shelter being more difficult to tame. Members took a decline in durable goods inflation as a sign that higher interest rates were working their way through the economy and slowing demand.
Given these risks, Benjamin Reitzes, managing director at BMO Capital Markets noted the risks in the environment could bring more rate hikes early in the year. , which added an estimate-busting 104,000 new positions in December. Governing Council read this as a sign that there was still excess demand in the economy, though concluded that wage-price inflation had been plateauing at around the four to five per cent range.Article contentPhoto by John Lappa/Sudbury Star/Postmedia Network
Household debt could also be a source of slowing consumer demand as the central bank works to take steam out of the economy. Governing Council noted that many households with five-year mortgages would be renewing in a year or so, which means they will be hit with higher borrowing costs. As a result, a bigger chunk of Canadians’ take-home pay will be put toward servicing mortgages rather than being spent in areas that stimulate the economy, such as dining out, haircuts, etc.