And there's good reason why investors should pay attention. Based on an analysis of 16 recessionary bear markets since 1871, returns after recessionary lows averaged 21% annually, compared to just 9% when buying at any time, according to the note., on average, and investors should be proactive in identifying buy signals," BofA said."Good indicators for market lows should be reliable, reflective of the economy, and relatively fast-moving.
Instead, investors should follow these three reliable signals that, when flashed, suggest the next bull market in stocks has arrived.trailing earnings typically troughs in the month after the market finds support," BofA said. "A simple estimate using surveys of manufacturers and credit managers implies a 7% decline in S&P 500 earnings, similar to our equity team's -9% forecast," BofA said."S&P 500 earnings recession still to come.""The 10-month moving average is a pure price metric. The S&P 500 index price reliably crosses above its 10-month average four months after a big market low.
It's going to take a wave of job layoffs for the unemployment rate to surge higher, and so far, that hasn't happened.
'Just time the market, everyone! You gotta all do it simultaneously!'