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Marketmind: Fed eyes pause, market bets on pivot

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A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.The Fed on Wednesday delivered what markets are convinced will be the last rate hike of the cycle, bond yields and the dollar fell, yet investors are rattled. Asian markets wake up on Thursday to the realization that although U.S. rates h

The Fed on Wednesday delivered what markets are convinced will be the last rate hike of the cycle, bond yields and the dollar fell, yet investors are rattled.

Australian trade figures for March and final reading of China's manufacturing PMI for April are the indicators most likely to give local markets a steer on Thursday, while the European Central Bank is expected to raise rates later.The performance of U.S. regional banks on Wednesday is telling. They rose as much as 3 per cent in early trade, recouping some of the previous two days' heavy losses. Booming private sector U.S. jobs data also soothed hard landing or recession fears.

They closed down for a third day, shedding 1 per cent, while Wall Street's three main indices lost between 0.4 per cent and 0.8 per cent, short-dated Treasury yields plunged, and the dollar fell. Markets are simply not buying Powell's insistence that this time really might be different and the United States can avoid recession after the most aggressive tightening campaign in 40 years - they are pricing in 75 bps of Fed easing this year, the two-year U.S. yield is down 25 bps since Wednesday, oil is down 10 per cent this week.

 

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