Consider the reports on the economy that trickle in nearly every day. On Thursday, the Labor Department reported a decline in initial jobless claims, to an eight-month low of 201,000. That’s pushing claims to near the lowest level, defying the Federal Reserve’s attempt to induce a labor-market slowdown to get inflation under control. The result: a sharp 1.6% sell-off in the S&P 500 SPX.
Well, it suggests that maybe there’s another force driving market direction, namely the surge in bond yields, which may not really be driven by the data at all. That doesn’t look like it will end well, and the Deutsche Bank team say it won’t, unless the Fed gets more dovish on rates or pursues a far less aggressive quantitative tightening program.
The market U.S. stock futures ES00, +0.30% NQ00, +0.30% were a bit stronger as the 10-year yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y fell 5 basis points. Crude-oil futures CL.1, +1.66% traded higher.