Nvidia has impressed Wall Street with earnings for the past two quarters amid an increasingly upbeat outlook over demand for computer chips to power the artificial intelligence boom. But woes over export rules to China threaten to derail a three-peat.
The Commerce Department said earlier this month that it was tightening rules announced in 2022 that target China’s access to AI and other advanced technologies. The latest rules focus on the most high-tech chips, like Nvidia’s, that are now banned for export without a license. Even sales to China of chips below that threshold require notifying the government, which could then ban individual sales.
With the Journal reporting that new rules could compel Nvidia to cancel billions of dollars in orders to China next year, there may now be a number—$5 billion—to look at as a baseline hit to the company in 2024. It may put Nvidia’s outlook under pressure when the company reports results in late November, disappointing investors that have become used to the group consistently raising its outlook. The coming quarter, which covers the November to January period, could be impacted by the immediate effect of export rules that hit deliveries scheduled for yearly next year, to say nothing of any guidance further into 2024.