China’s economic recovery largely rests on whether the country’s consumers have recovered from the scars created by strict Covid restrictions, increased intervention in the private sector and a property slump. Recent quarterly results from global consumer giants doesn’t instill much confidence that the economy is turning a corner.
“I was calling China’s recovery a crab walk, but I think that is probably even optimistic,” says Laura Geritz, head of Rondure Global Advisors, noting the remarks. “The fear is that this isn’t a wave, but a sign of something more sinister.” “We are hearing from a number of companies that Chinese consumers are trading down, favoring more value for money brands in categories such as sportswear, and food and beverage,” said Ginny Chong, senior portfolio manager at Mondrian Investment Partners.
In Estée Lauder’s world of cosmetics, local Chinese brand Proya has been performing well while Huawei has been a stronger challenger to Apple, Chong adds. Indeed, analysts are closely monitoring just how much Huawei’s new phone cuts into demand for iPhones. “These are stopgap measures,” says Schwab, who has under 20% of his fund in China, compared with the 26% average held by peers. ” Chinese policy makers are trying to address structural issues with conventional cyclical tactics and the market and these reports are saying it’s ineffectual.”
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