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U.S. Corporate Earnings Season Begins Amidst China Trade Concerns

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U.S. Corporate Earnings,China Trade,Technology Companies

As the first quarter U.S. corporate earnings season begins, attention shifts to the performance of big U.S. banks and technology-related companies. The forecast for S&P 500 profit growth is slightly lower than at the start of the year, but technology companies are expected to lead the way. The recent alarming swoon in China trade and rising Middle East tension add to the uncertainty.

With markets now re-shuffling central bank rate cut calendars, attention switches abruptly to the first quarter U.S. corporate earnings season on Friday - against a backdrop of an alarming swoon in China trade last month and rising Middle East tension.

But clocking a 0.7% rebound in the S&P500, the general market mood improved considerably after Wednesday's inflation-related shakeout. Softer U.S. producer price readings for March - including in key components that feed the Fed's favoured PCE inflation gauge - were a big relief to interest rate markets.

Fed futures re-calibrated again, pushing back closer to pricing two rate cuts this year - starting in September just six weeks before the U.S election. While a June start is now off the agenda, the chance of a move as soon as July moved back above 50%.The easier producer price numbers and Fed speakers were also enough to drag Treasury yield back off the year's highs - with two-year yields recoiling from 5% to settle just over 4.90% first thing on Friday.

German two-year government debt yields fell back 10 basis points and European stocks jumped 1% on Friday as a result.The dollar was also bolstered by ongoing Japanese yen weakness to 34-year lows and the shocking Chinese trade data that hit the yuan. And former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke will set out on Friday how the Bank of England should reform its economic forecasting.

 

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