to the list of things that nearly everyone has been expecting but shows no signs of actually occurring.in the post-pandemic period. Almost since the recovery began, however, analysts have been warning that something—inflation exhaustion or the end of excess savings or tighter credit have been popular candidates—would force consumers to retreat.
The economy added 175,000 jobs in April, which is a solid increase. Sixty percent of those were in the private sector, indicating that. And it’s important to remember that even the non-cyclical government and government-adjacent sectors of the labor market still count when it comes to adding spending power to the private sector. Government and hospital employment may be driven by government spending, but government and hospital employees still buy goods and services from businesses.
, which had a very large spring promotional event in March that almost certainly pulled forward sales from April.. In February, sales inched down 0.1 percent. In March, online sales jumped 2.5 percent in a single month. The following month, sales fell 1.2 percent. That puts the three-month growth at 0.8 percent, which annualizes to a rate of 3.2 percent. Compared with a year earlier, online sales are up 8.7 percent in the three-months from February through April. Year-to-date, sales are up 10.
This means that growth is unlikely to come to a sudden halt. At the same time, inflation is unlikely to meaningfully decline from the three to 3.5 percent underlying rate over the past six months. That will likely mean
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