So this will be a bit strange from that perspective. Having some mushy data from the last two weeks, retail sales may take on some extra importance, with expectations for an increase of 0.3% m/m from a flat month. The control group is expected to rise by 0.4% versus a decline of 0.3% last month.
Both the Citi Economic Surprise Index and the Bloomberg Economic Growth Surprise Index have turned negative in recent weeks, solidifying the idea that the data has been notably softer recently.report is that generally speaking, a weak CPI would suggest weak retail sales since retail sales are reported in nominal terms. Additionally, a CPI report of 0.
It is tough to tell at this point because we are seeing the stress in France rippling across Europe, with French and German spreads widening out and causing a flight to safety into US bonds. The spread between the two bonds widened to 76 bps on Friday, the widest since 2017 and the European debt crisis in 2011.FX pair and the spread between the Italian and German 10s, which we have been discussing now for several weeks.
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