Building a portfolio that withstands a volatile market: Opening Bid

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Tough Week Nyheter

Chief Research Strategist Kathryn Kaminski,Federal Reserve,Volatility

US Equities (^GSPC, ^DJI, ^IXIC) faced a tough week last week with volatility (^VIX) on a roller coaster ride, although markets were able to recover, closing...

) on a roller coaster ride, although markets were able to recover, closing relatively flat. Although investors remain firm on an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in September, a large swath of economic data still lies between now and then that could rock the market and change the Fed's mind, resulting in more volatility.

Well, not, well, for me in the news business, we just tend to do two things we rec caffeinate uh during the day and at the end of the day you hit that, you hit that whiskey.So I started in the space right, in the middle of the financial crisis and I was in managed futures and I don't know if most people know, but managed futures was one of the only strategies that really hit the lights out in 2008.

So we saw commodities go from long to short signals, we saw bonds go from short signals to long signals over the month of July.And the other thing that's interesting is equity tends to be the last to fall. Do you think investor complacency has gotten pounded out of this market or there's more pounding to go?

And you know how people react first, I read somewhere Katherine uh that you view yourself as a trend following nerd. What we are seeing is shifting themes and that's how we tend to think about the market when we see shifting themes in asset classes. What do you make of that rotation out of some of these stocks that have been drivers of the market for the past five years?

So trend signals in general across different stocks, when you start to get to that point that they're deteriorating, it's often incense a time to take profits So I think that it is going to be very tricky to know what's the right entry point. So I think equities definitely look like they're going to be hard to predict for the next few weeks and few months just given sort of valuations where we've been and just the level of uncertainty that were around the policy change and also elections.I think II I tend to agree with you that uh it will be wild, which means it won't be wild.But that's how uh markets work, what do you think about?Now a month ago, everybody was clamoring for a rate cut and that would be good.

How do I go about building a portfolio from scratch in this type of environment, from scratch in this type of environment? Um Oftentimes if that's the case, that narrative is often expressed in the behavior of investors already and I think I undercut the price.You know, as we uh start to wrap this one up, do you see?

And I think given the backdrop of changing monetary policy and also just the uncertainty around elections and you know, what does it mean to go back to normal inflation?What have you you're going back to when you started in 2008.So what's very interesting about being a systematic investor is that we follow a process?

And that is a very different than a discretionary trader where you have to in the heat of the moment decide is this over. I think it's being aware of my emotions and sort of understanding the role of emotion and investing because I think why I'm so fascinated about systematic trading is it's about decoupling emotion from the process.It's about people and we have emotions and they cause us to make different decisions.Well, I thought, I thought these markets were just run by machines, Catherine.Of course, I mean, you mentioned the game stock before.

And then of course, recently caught up with Ford Ceo Jim Far Leo at in Detroit about the future of evs Autos and election. Ocean Power Technologies Continues Global Expansion with Signing of Strategic Reseller Agreements in All Key Continents

 

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