The U.S. labor market may not be quite as soft as the very large downward revision to payroll figures from the Labor Department this week suggests.in the 12 months that ended in March. This was toward the high end of estimates of economists and the largest revision since 2009, when the economy was reeling from the financial crisis.during the relevant 12 month period, down from the 242,000 suggested in earlier estimates.
The best evidence against the conspiracy view of the revision is that the new figures, which are still preliminary, were put out by the very same outfit——that publishes the monthly estimates. It would be a very strange and clumsy conspiracy that cooked the books for a year and a half but finally released the real numbers in the middle of the Democrats’ national convention.
What this means is that many of the jobs that seem to have been illusory are likely very real. They’re just not held by people authorized to work in the United States.Economists at Goldman Sachs who have analyzed the issue estimate that the revision could have erroneously erased 400,000 to 600,000 workers from the payroll numbers.The assumption is that a downward revision in jobs means fewer jobs were created.
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