NEW YORK - Stock valuations have climbed to levels reached just before Wall Street’s late 2018 plunge, leaving the market at risk of shocks such as the sell-off this week as global trade tensions mounted.
The forward P/E for the index, which compares stock prices to estimated earnings over the next year, had climbed recently to 17 times, making the index about 13% more expensive than its historic average, according to more than 30 years of data tracked by Refinitiv. As of Friday’s close, the S&P 500 was about 2.2% below its all-time high close, which in turn reduced the forward P/E multiple on the S&P 500 to nearly 16.8 times, still well above the historic average of 15.1 times. On Friday, the S&P 500 rose 0.4%.
“The biggest difference is the pivot by the Fed,” said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services in Hammond, Indiana. “In a low interest-rate environment, if that persists, you can have higher multiples because you have more demand because you can’t make any money anywhere else other than equities. It’s the classic risk-on ”
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