September's poor history is hard to ignore, but market has many things on its side including the Fed

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Bob Pisani breaks down what traders are watching as September trading kicks off.

The bad news is that September is the worst month of the year, but there's plenty of good news to balance out the bad. The bad news: seasonality and the elections September is the worst month of the year for the Dow Industrials, S & P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.

"While momentum usually overrides seasonal concerns, September is hard to ignore – it is the only month down on average," Frank Gretz from Wellington Shields said in a Friday note to clients. 1) The market "broadening" trend is very real. Two-thirds of the S&P 500 was up in August. The NYSE advance/decline line hit an all-time high. More than 70% of the stocks on the NYSE are above their 200-day moving average. Most importantly, themodestly outperformed the S&P 500 in August and closed Friday at an historic high. Megacap Tech did not have a bad month, but aside from Meta it was not a leadership group:2) Earnings remain strong.

It makes sense most traders don't think the Fed needs to be very aggressive yet: with the job market still relatively strong, most traders don't expect the Fed to get aggressive unless it has to.

 

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