The financial media appear to once again be leading the public astray about the Yield Curve situation.
The long-term chart below advises that the last two real bear markets in stocks, in 2000 and 2007 , were attended by a steepening. In each case, the bear markets bottomed out months before the yield curve steepeners topped. But we are far away from managing that situation. The steepener is only a baby, as yet.
I want to see where the Fed is being compelled to go, not where it has squatted to this point. Look no further than the interminable “transitory inflation” stance the Fed asked us to buy into before they finally got off their dovish ass and began to fight the inflation problem they primarily enabled, if not outright manufactured.
Using the 2000 and 2007 market tops as examples, the bear would begin either concurrent with, or many months after an inversion bottom, turns up and un-inverts. The 2020-2021 steepener and bull phase in stocks were different. They featured an inflationary steepener , as monetary and fiscal policymakers’ inflationary operations of 2020 kicked in to temporarily bolster the economy.
The dashed hope for gold bugs – at least on an interim basis – would be that gold would be punched in the mouth for its macro correlation when the cyclical, risk-on markets take it on the chin.In keeping with a US presidential election year filled with disinformation , desperation, and emotion, the financial media are keeping the public hopped up on its own brand of disinformation. This dovetails well with our plan for the broad asset market party to run “to or through the election.
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