Surprise, surprise. September’s jobs report shows a 254,000 increase in employment, and once again, it appears the real action is in the footnotes, specifically the magic ofhave the unenviable task of smoothing out the labor market’s wild swings, especially in September, where history tells us the private sector nearly always loses jobs before those adjustments work their magic.
—excluding the pandemic year of 2020. On average in this century, American payrolls shrink by 432,000 if we exclude 2020 and 405,000 if we do not. This shouldn’t be shocking. Kids leave their summer jobs. Students return to school. Teachers, meanwhile, head back to classrooms, often leaving private payrolls for public.. Our labor market isn’t breaking any new ground here. The only new twist is the jaw-dropping scale of the adjustments this year..
How about partisanship? When a Democrat is in the White House during an election year since 1990, the average September adjustment jumps to 506,000. Under a Republican incumbent? Only 395,000. Since 2000, this partisan gap has widened further, with adjustments averagingWhy the disparity? It’s not because the BLS favors Democrats. It’s probably rooted in the nature of each party’s interventions in the economy.
So, was there an October surprise in the just-released September jobs numbers? Only if you’re surprised by what’s been happening for decades.Slow-Walking Aid to Hurricane-Ravaged Red America Is All Upside for KamalaWatch Live: Donald Trump Holds Town Hall in Fayetteville, North Carolina‘America Is Under Attack’: Rep.
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