Of course, who will become the next President of the United States of America is often a considerable uncertainty, especially in the 2024 elections with two opposite candidates. Since the President of the USA wields great economic power at home and abroad, and the stock market is an economic barometer, it is paramount to ask if the outcome of the elections can crash the US stock market.
made a new all-time high last week, which excludes the red W-b/ii setup for that index. Since the NDX and NAS are often tied to the hip, it is uncommon for the two to have vastly differing EWP counts. Namely, as explained in our previous update, if the Bears cannot hold the index's price below the July ATH, we must focus on the alternative EWP count in Figure 2 below, which is the “dreaded” ending diagonal . Figure 2.
daily chart with detailed Elliott Wave count and technical indicators As explained in our previous update, “In an ED, the 3rd wave … typically targets the 1.236x Fibonacci extension of the , measured from the low, … . From there, a correction, , can target typically, but not necessarily, the 61.8-76.4% Fib-extension … before the kicks in, to ideally the 161.8-176.4% Fib-extension … .
. Figure 2 shows that it is following this ED pattern rather well. This path is contingent on holding above the September 6 low, though the potential 4th wave, as shown, can become more protracted, i.e., a bounce followed by another move lower before the final 5th wave starts. B) Market breadth readings and sentiment are getting pretty washed out. See Figure 3 below. Although these are conditions, i.e.
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