Treasury. While the spread is no longer inverted, it still could easily move that way once more. The concern is an inverted curve has been a very reliable signal of a recession.
"It's certainly overstated. If you look at retail sales, one of the signs of a recession is three consecutive monthly declines in retail sales, and we're seeing just the opposite," said Rupkey, adding the retail sales reports were weak at the end of last year and beginning of this year before recovering.
Weekly jobless claims Thursday rose by 9,000 to 220,000 in the week ended August 10, but one economist notes the number of new claims being filed has been locked in a narrow range between 207,000 to 222,000 in 13 of the last 14 weeks. "Firms are struggling so much with a scarcity of qualified workers that it is hard to imagine layoffs rising much any time soon unless the economy falls off a cliff," said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Pierpont Amherst.
I don’t believe you’re forthcoming with the truth. Have central banks (cbs) normalized their balance sheets after 2008? No, they’re holding more debt. Don’t think they can handle another crisis or recession.
Consumers may be spending, but if that spending comes in the form of new debt, especially credit card debt, that could portend problems down the road. Especially when rates go up again.