The UBS “Evidence Lab,” which publishes regular research on consumer habits across industry section, found that 43% of the 1,000 U.S. consumers surveyed in mid-August said they plan to subscribe. That puts it ahead of Disney’s internal forecasts, offered last April, of 20 million to 30 million U.S. subscribers by 2024, or 20% to 30% of U.S. broadband households.Importantly, the financial institution noted, the survey was taken before last weekend’s D23 Expo in Anaheim.
UBS has a “buy” rating on Disney stock, with a 12-month price target of $165 a share. On Wednesday, Disney shares closed at $136.55, up 1.5%. About 79% of all survey respondents said they had heard of Disney+. Another strong majority of all respondents — 67% — said they would likely add Disney+ without eliminating any of their current video services.
Of the 43% indicating intent to subscribe, though, 57% said they would cancel at least one other service. Pay-TV, at 37%, was cited as the most likely to be cut, with 33% indicating other video services and, interestingly, only 19% flagging premium linear networks like HBO or Showtime. In June, a separate UBS report found that only 13% of survey participants were willing to pay for more than three subscription OTT video services at one time. Three services at a time has become a rule of thumb in the streaming derby. If it holds true, it will raise the stakes for other new entrants like HBO Max and Apple TV+.