Investors should brace for the start of a U.S. recession in the second half of 2022 and for the stock market to record a roughly 20% retreat for the full year, according to a revised outlook from the Wells Fargo Institute released Thursday.
They... Investors should brace for the start of a U.S. recession in the second half of 2022 and for the stock market to record a roughly 20% retreat for the full year, according to a revised outlook from the Wells Fargo Institute released Thursday. They also expect inflation to stay high, ending the year at 7.7% and for the S&P 500 index SPX , which fell into a bear market in June, to end the year roughly 20% below its peak in early January. Other key revisions to their outlook for global equities can be found in the below chart.
“While investors slowly digest the lurch toward reduced 2022 earnings projections, additional near-term equity market volatility is very likely,” the team wrote. But they also see a moderate recession akin to the 1981-82 downturn, with a “sustained economic and earnings recovery for most of 2023 and 2024.”
Earnings recession coming …
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