Market strategists signal caution after strong first quarter

Two traders confer seconds after the closing bell on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on February 1, 2019 in New York City.The first three months of 2019 are over - and, remarkably, it has proved to be the best quarter for global stock markets since July-September 2010.

Meanwhile, the CAC-40 in France finished the quarter up 13.1%, which was its best showing since the first three months of 2015. And the IBEX in Spain, a serial under-performer of late, rose by 8.2%. And in Japan, the world's second-largest equity market after the US, the Nikkei 225 index, finished the quarter ahead by 6%.

The most important developments so far this year for stock markets, then, have been the Fed's signalling that further interest rate rises this year are unlikely andfrom the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the People's Bank of China to stimulate their economies. Yet investors from one asset class to another seem divided on when this might be. The global markets strategy team at JP Morgan pointed out today that, while US stock markets appear to be pricing in a 15% chance of a"typical US recession" and US corporate debt markets a 10-25% chance of a US recession, the US Treasuries market"points to an 80% chance of a US recession on our calculations".

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