U.S. employment, services industry data point to slowing economic recovery

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U.S. private payrolls increased less than expected in October, providing an early sign of a slowdown in economic activity as fiscal stimulus diminishes and new COVID-19 infections surge across the country

The recovery from the coronavirus pandemic could also be impacted over the next few months by political uncertainty following Tuesday’s cliffhanger presidential election, which economists warned could cause businesses to be more cautious about spending decisions.

“Animosity and the threat of legal challenges argues against a swift fiscal support package which will be a concern as activity becomes increasingly constrained.” Even without new restrictions, Americans are likely to stay away from air travel, hotels, gyms, bars, restaurants and other consumer-facing businesses, worsening already lackluster demand, which has seen the labor market struggling to recoup all the 22.2 million jobs lost during the pandemic.

It was released ahead of the government’s closely watched, and comprehensive, monthly employment report on Friday. According to a Reuters survey of economists, private nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 700,000 jobs in October after rising 877,000 in September. A survey from the Institute for Supply Management on Wednesday showed its non-manufacturing activity index fell to a reading of 56.6 in October from 57.8 in September, falling back below its 57.3 level in February.

A third report from the Commerce Department showed the trade deficit fell 4.7% to $63.9 billion in September as food exports jumped to the highest level since July 2012, boosted by shipments of soybeans. Economists had forecast the trade shortfall narrowing to $63.8 billion in September.

 

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