The eagerly awaited inflation data for August came in weaker than forecast, in what proved to be good news for the bond market but not for a stock market that’s been struggling this month.
“If someone says that the stock market is cheap or expensive, naturally you need to ask, compared to what? For judging stocks, the 10-year Treasury yield is a good starting place. The problem with looking at Treasury yields is that inflation can greatly impact them. That’s where [Treasury inflation-protected securities] come in because these bond yields are adjusted for inflation,” he says.
The yield on the 10-year TIPS, on Tuesday, was -1.05%, which is close to a record low. “For now, the bond market is signaling more good news for stocks,” said Elfenbein. Microsoft MSFT, +0.94% said it was hiking its dividend by 11% as it authorized a stock buyback of up to $60 billion. The market U.S. stock futures ES00, +0.20% NQ00, +0.26% edged higher after the recent string of declines. The yield on the 10-year Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.278% slipped to 1.27%.
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