Fears over the Federal Reserve’s hawkish shift have combined with geopolitical uncertainty to push the S&P 500 into a correction this year, yet historical data suggests tighter monetary policy has often been accompanied by solid gains in stocks.
An analysis of 12 rate hike cycles overall by Truist Advisory Services found the S&P 500′s posted a total return at an average annualized rate of 9.4% during the length of such cycles, showing positive returns in 11 of those periods. The uncertainty has presented a dilemma for the central bank, with some investors worried policymakers could push the economy into a recession if it raises rates too far as it seeks to tamp down inflation.
“The Fed doesn’t want a recession and it generally takes a whole lot of hiking before the economy is put into position to potentially feel a recession,” said Julian Emanuel, senior managing director at Evercore ISI. The S&P 500 has slid more than 10% to start 2022, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq confirmed it was in a bear market, dropping over 20% from its November all-time high. Tech and growth stocks have underperformed, as the rise in bond yields pressures the value of future cash flows that those stocks valuations’ rely on.
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