OPINIONISTA: South Africa’s odd market performance in a time of war in Europe

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ARCHIVES: South Africa’s markets are doing something extremely odd: they are holding up. We are so used to seeing the rand slide aggressively against the dollar when almost any global calamity takes place, you have to pinch yourself slightly when the ...

Believe it or not, the country’s markets generally have not only held steady but have in some cases actually strengthened. What on earth is going on here?

You could almost take any crisis at random, but the number of times South Africa’s markets have escaped a global crisis can be counted on the fingers of one hand. So, why is it that it seems to be escaping the scythe this time? Russia is well known for its energy resources; it’s less well known but also an important player in PGMs, base metals and some agricultural products, notably potash. Many of these products are substitutable by those that South Africa produces.

He warns, however, that the tailwind might not last long, and the danger will come from a completely different location: the US. It’s clear now that the US Fed will raise interest rates at every meeting this year. Much of this depends on how the war in Ukraine ends, and that of course we don’t know. There are four scenarios: The sides come to an uncomfortable agreement in which Russia withdraws and Ukraine remains neutral; Russia wins and occupies Ukraine; Ukraine resists successfully and Russia withdraws without agreement; Russian president Vladimir Putin is overthrown.

 

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R12 to the USD before the year is out. $2,500/oz gold. What is there to be surprised about?

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