Why this Morgan Stanley portfolio manager is ‘gradually’ getting less defensive in stocks as recession fears rise

It may be time to get a little less defensive and shift toward buying some crushed stocks as recession fears intensify, according to Andrew Slimmon, an equity portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

In Slimmon’s view, the market will bottom when investors think inflation has peaked and the Fed is mostly done hiking its benchmark rate. Last week, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly signaled her support for another big rate increase in July to help curb the surge in the cost of living in the U.S.

U.S. stocks were trading modestly lower in early afternoon Friday, with the S&P 500 down 0.1%, the Dow falling around 0.2% and the Nasdaq off about 0.3%, according to FactSet data, at last check. That’s partly because people made a lot of home-related purchases earlier in the pandemic, and they’re now spending their money on travel instead, according to Slimmon. Plus, mortgage rates are going up, making it more difficult to purchase homes. It’s “a triple whammy of bad news,” he said.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s “GDPNow” tracker estimates that the U.S. economy shrank 1% in the second quarter, according to a June 30 report from the Atlanta Fed.

The Fed is very closed to be done with tightening

Down 60% with p/e's of 50 still..

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