Stocks and US equity futures climbed as bond yields pared their recent surge and investors weighed prospects of aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes against reassuring earnings.
Friday’s stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data added to the case for more Fed monetary tightening, and traders are looking to inflation numbers due this week for clues on the policy path. Rate-hike expectations have pushed up Treasury yields and the dollar, while a key part of the US bond curve is close to the most inverted level since 2000, suggesting investors foresee a recession as the Fed applies the brakes on the economy.
But strategists at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expect corporate profit margins to contract next year given unrelenting cost pressures, an outlook that is at odds with the mood in equity markets. According to Morgan Stanley’s Michael J. Wilson, among the most vocal bears on US stocks, “the best part of the rally is over.”
The latest comments from Fed officials left a question mark over wagers on a policy pivot toward reducing borrowing costs next year.San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the US central bank is “far from done yet” in bringing down price pressures. Governor Michelle Bowman said the Fed should keep considering large hikes similar to the 75 basis-point increase approved last month until inflation meaningfully declines.
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