In the U.S., most EVs are pricier models and going to buyers with higher incomes, but S&P said that’s in part because Tesla sells the majority of them. In the first nine months of 2022, there were 525,000 EVs registered in the country and nearly 340,000 of them were Teslas. But as more affordable battery vehicles arrive, and “offering equal or better technology and production build,” the report said, “Tesla’s ability to retain a dominant market share will be challenged going forward.
S&P predicts EV nameplates will grow from the current 48 to 159 by the end of 2025, “at a pace faster than Tesla will be able to add factories.” That automaker’s range is “expected to grow to include Cybertruck in 2023 and eventually a Roadster, but largely the Tesla model lineup in 2025 will be the same models it offers today.” It still expects Tesla’s unit sales will grow, even as its share of the EV market declines.
Despite shortages caused by supply-chain issues, EVs gained 2.4 points of market share year-over-year as of September 2022, and achieved 5.2 per cent of all light-vehicle registrations. Tesla’s Model Y and Model 3 combined accounted for 56 per cent of those vehicles. Ford was in second place, although the 27,800 units of the Mach-E sold were only about 8 per cent of Tesla’s volume.
The study found that very few EV owners return to gasoline vehicles. The Model Y has 60.5 per cent brand loyalty, and nearly 74 per cent of buyers move to it from other brands – primarily Toyota, Honda, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz. For individual models, those buying a Model Y are most likely trading in a Lexus RX, Honda CR-V, Toyota RAV4, Honda Odyssey, or Honda Accord.
To buy a new Model 3, shoppers are primarily trading in a Honda Civic, Honda Accord, Toyota Camry, RAV4, or CR-V. As for the Mustang Mach-E, it’s mostly drawing buyers out of a RAV4, CR-V, or Jeep Wrangler; while the Chevrolet Bolt primarily pulls drivers out of the RAV4, CR-V, and Toyota Prius. The Hyundai Ioniq5 gets them out of the RAV4, CR-V, Mazda CX-5, and Subaru Forester.
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