Almost everyone is expecting a recession next year, but the market is forecasting earnings growth, this model finds

Outlooks for next year are coming in fast and furious, and if there’s one commonality it’s the belief the U.S. will fall into a recession at some point next year, hurt by the lagged impact of Federal Reserve rate hikes.

That’s... Outlooks for next year are coming in fast and furious, and if there’s one commonality it’s the belief the U.S. will fall into a recession at some point next year, hurt by the lagged impact of Federal Reserve rate hikes. That’s according to a Citigroup analysis. They compare a MSCI index’s trailing price-to-earnings ratio to its 15-year median. “The methodology is intentionally simplistic. It ignores varying inflation and interest rates across different cycles. However, we find it has a decent track record at estimating what might already be priced in as a downturn begins and hence how far the market might fall for a given drop in corporate earnings,” say strategists led by Robert Buckland.

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