Stock Market Outlook: S&P 500 on track for 28% gain this year

The S&P 500 is on track to gain as much as 28% this year, according to Oppenheimer's chief market strategist John Stoltzfus.since January, raised his S&P 500 target for the year to 4,900. That implies an 8% rise from current levels and a 28% increase from levels at the beginning of the year.

Investors have turned more optimistic as inflation trends lower, a sign that the Fed's rate hikes are working. Central bankers raised interest rates aggressively over the last year to tame inflation, a move that raised the risk of recession and caused the S&P 500 to sink 20% in 2022., thanks to inflation easing without unemployment spiking. Meanwhile, growth remained solid, with GDP rising 2% the past quarter, per the latest estimates.

"Capitulation by stock market bears on a near wholesale basis of late … suggests that money held on the sidelines may flow into stocks in the months ahead," Stoltzfus said.

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