Market’s muted reaction to Israel-Hamas war ignores unholy trinity

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Investors will look past the conflict while it remains, relatively. But the risks from higher bond yields and a stronger US dollar haven’t gone away, and oil prices are a big watch.

Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to “change the Middle East” through what is likely to be a long and brutal retaliation against Hamas,Global bond yields did move a little lower but there was no major risk-off move, as you often see at times of conflict. Instead, investors took comfort from a notable change in tone from several Federal Reserve officials, including

“Historically, those three things happening … tend to break something in the financial system, and the market concern is that we haven’t even finished with interest rate risk, and then there’s credit and liquidity risk,” he told CNBC.Despite a sudden outbreak of dovish Fed speak, it’s far too early to take the risk of higher rates and yields off the table. The US dollar certainly won’t be weakening against this fraught backdrop. And oil prices are, of course, a big risk to watch.

Growth over the next decade will be driven by demand from China and India, with JPMorgan energy analyst Christyan Malek arguing that Saudi Arabia is the only producer with much in the way of spare capacity to meet that extra demand.

 

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