Commercial property investment: How to play the real estate office downturn and spot a bargain

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Savvy buyers made a fortune after the 2008 crash, picking up property at distressed prices. Investors hoping to spot bargains can watch these trends.

MA Financial co-founder Andrew Pridham expects office sector pain to endure for at least another 12 months as companies re-adjust to the structural change of remote work. But the latest downturn, like any other, will provide opportunities for property investors to snap up assets at discounted prices for strong, long-term returns.

Sydney prime office values have dropped 8 per cent in the past year, and are expected to decline by another 7 per cent in the next 12 months due to the office sector’s weak rental growth and softening cap rates, according to Oxford Economics data.

“We think the market is overpricing risk in well-located, A-grade assets, which is providing an opportunity for Quintessential and its investors to capitalise on.”purchasing Dexus’ 1 Margaret St for $293.4 millionThe deal represents a cost of $14,119 per square metre.

The convergence of bond yields and office cap rates over the last year has correlated with Q3 office investment dropping 80 per cent from a year earlier, while year-to-date investment is 65 per cent lower year-on-year, according to MSCI data.As of September, sellers are still holding out for unrealistic prices, according to MSCI’s bid-ask spread.

 

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