Global business cycle is in transition: Kemp

LONDON, Oct 27 - Global economic activity was mixed during the third quarter of 2023, with distinct signs of improvement in the United States and China but continued sluggishness elsewhere.

Preliminary estimates show U.S. real gross domestic product increased at an annualised rate of 4.9% in the three months from July to September up from 2.1% in the three months from April to June. Service sector prices rose at an annualised rate of 5.2% in the three months ending in September up from 3.3% in the three months ending in June.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers , a measure that strips out volatile changes in inventories, trade and government spending, increased at an annualised rate of 3.3% between July and September. The unemployment rate was just 3.8% in September while inventories of diesel and other distillate fuel oils were 19 million barrels below the prior 10-year seasonal average.

China's electricity generation was up 9% in September compared with a year earlier, with big increases in power consumed by service sector firms , manufacturers and primary industries .Singapore acts as a major transshipment hub for trade between Asia and Europe and freight volumes also show signs of accelerating.

But the index has since weakened, consistent with the renewed downturn in volumes shown in the global trade index. In Germany, energy-intensive manufacturers reported output was still down by down 16% in August 2023 compared with January 2022 before Russia's invasion and shows no sign of recovering. More worrying is persistent inflation in the service sector while limited spare industrial capacity and inventories of raw materials imply merchandise inflation could also re-emerge relatively quickly.

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