Stock market's best quarter in nearly 10 years could be followed with more gains if trade goes well

The first quarter is on track to be the best in nearly 10 years, and the best start to the year for the S&P 500 since 1998. While it's not likely to repeat those gains, analysts say the second quarter could be good for stocks even with some bumps.

This year's first quarter certainly benefited from an oversold bounce back, after the fourth quarter's dramatic, near 14 percent slump, so some analysts say the second quarter could be higher, but not by nearly as much.Hurdles for the market are the unresolved U.S.-China trade talks; earnings growth of zero or lower, and a slowing global economy, led by China. Global growth fears have been building over the first quarter amid spotty U.S.

Tilley expects the U.S. and China to reach a trade deal this year, and he blames trade for much of the market weakness in the fourth quarter. The two sides have been negotiating with some slight signs of progress. Many economists believe the second half of the year will see better growth, but the outcome of the trade situation is a key to both the economy's performance and the market's.

At the same time, the markets have written off the Fed and believe after its last meeting it was signaling an even more dovish tone. In response, the futures markets are now pricing in rate cuts for this year and next, and the bond market underwent a massive readjustment with rates falling to more than one year lows. The move in the 2-year note yield, for instance, was the biggest such decline in six days since the financial crisis in 2009.

"For the time being, we're in a consolidation phase," said Emanuel."German yields slipping below zero tells you the depressed psychology is more entrenched than what you might have been expecting at this point."

Why there is a talk of recession around?

The Chinese economy collapses as well as the communist party. all for the cost of a few tariffs is the deal of the century.

Them rich mf getting richer by the second while trump tries to take medicaid from struggling americans

Yeah this isn’t orchestrated at all....

Could be followed by losses if trade goes poorly. More at 6 o'clock

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Stock buybacks among S&P 500 companies mark a record streakThe amount of shares repurchase among S&P 500 companies in the last three months of 2018 hit a record in the fourth quarter, marking the fourth consecutive quarterly all-time high and the longest such streak on record. Lets see if we experience a decent (Window Dressing) futures romp-over-night, only 4-days left to trade in 1st quarter 2019; [out with the dogs, in with the out-performers to paint the ape] before fund-manager statements are mailed out!
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S&P 500, Nasdaq snaps 2-session skid but 10-year Treasury yield near 2017 low keeps stock market in checkU.S. stock benchmarks on Tuesday gained but finished well off their best levels of the session as equity-market investors wrestled with falling yields that...
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