In a Tuesday note to clients, Bank of America strategists previewed the imminent Q2 earnings season as investors brace for a new series of results following a solid Q1.
Despite a strong start, macroeconomic conditions have weakened since Q1. The Economic Surprise Index has reached its lowest level since June 2015, indicating a potential 3% miss in Q2 earnings. However, historical data provides some optimism: post-global financial crisis, EPS have beaten expectations 91% of the time when the ESI was negative, averaging a 3% beat.
Excluding the Magnificent 7, consensus expects just a 1% real sales growth in the second half. This modest expectation is supported by the end of the de-stocking cycle, which has been one of the sharpest in history. The ratio of new orders to inventories has improved, suggesting that the inventory correction phase is nearing its end.
While monetization of AI is likely to take longer than initially hoped, major tech companies continue to invest aggressively. Consensus expects a 34% increase in capital expenditure from hyperscalers in 2024, totaling around $200 billion.