RARELY HAVE plans in China fallen apart so swiftly, so publicly. On January 12th the leaders of Hubei declared that the province’s GDP would grow by 7.5% this year. They also vowed to make the province a stronger link in high-tech supply chains. They made no mention of a mysterious new virus that was causing pneumonia and spreading fast through the cities and towns under their watch. But less than two weeks later its scale was too big to ignore.
Analysts have rushed to cut their forecasts for economic growth. The consensus had previously been that GDP would expand by about 6% year-on-year in the first quarter. Now several think that 4%, the slowest since China started publishing quarterly figures in 1992, is more likely, with risks firmly tilted to the downside. As with past epidemics, there is sure to be a strong recovery when the virus is eventually contained. But there is much uncertainty about when that might be.
Instead, China is using a combination of temporary cash support, market interventions and forbearance to get through the crisis. On February 3rd the central bank made headlines by injecting 1.2trn yuan into the financial system . Banks will probably suffer from rising loan defaults in the coming weeks, and this gives them more cash to work with. When the repurchase agreements come due, the central bank could choose, in effect, to extend them if needed.
suffer sometimes is our sisters new beginning to life. even though 100s and million would never of wanted it to happen
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