NEW YORK —Opinion polls in the United States have long pointed to the strong possibility of a Democratic Party sweep in the election on Nov. 3, with Joe Biden winning the presidency and Democrats gaining control of the Senate and holding on to the House of Representatives, putting an end to divided government.
Uncertainty could last months In the contested 2000 election, it took until Dec. 12 for the matter to be decided: The Supreme Court ruled in favor of George W. Bush, and his Democratic opponent, Al Gore, gracefully conceded. Rattled by the political uncertainty, the stock market DJIA, +2.20% SPX, +1.95% during this period fell by more than 7%. This time, the uncertainty could last for much longer—perhaps even months—implying serious risks for the markets.
“ If an election dispute drags on—perhaps into early next year—stock prices could fall by as much as 10%, government bond yields would decline, and the global flight to safety would push gold prices higher. ” They will be waging these legal battles in Republican-controlled state capitals, local and federal courts stacked with Trump-appointed judges, a Supreme Court with a 6-3 conservative majority, and a House of Representatives where, in the event of an Electoral College draw, Republicans hold the majority of state delegations.