The question is, however, are we now just looking at the once-typical seasonality in which market activity considerably slows in time for summer? Or could this be the end of the “dead cat bounce” that so many of the bears were calling for?
In either scenario, the summer market slowdown is now upon us and with it the most substantial May to June volume drop in recent memory. Prices are starting to tick slightly down while inventory is starting to trend upwards which is worth noting as new listings tend to fall away in true summer markets..According to TRREB President Paul Baron in the organizations Market Watch report, “The demand for ownership housing is stronger than last year, despite higher borrowing costs.
It would be logical to conclude that this isn’t just seasonality – consumer sentiment isn’t great right now. Inflation, while thankfully trending downward, remains sticky and the Bank of Canada has indicated the strong possibility of another small bump following their July meeting and possibly again in the fall.
The rate cuts so many were banking on now seem to be a 2024 story at best meaning this high-rate environment isn’t ending any time soon. When the fall market comes, we will certainly see activity. After all, life goes on, but for true vigour to return to the market we are going to need to see some good news on the economic horizon which certainly feels a ways off at the moment.