NEW YORK - Shifting views on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory are roiling the U.S. Treasury market, as investors gauge how close the central bank is to pulling back from its aggressive monetary policy tightening.
The volatility in Treasuries - which has rippled out into equities and other risk assets - is likely to continue until the market gets a definitive signal that the Fed is preparing to downshift, investors said. Their remarks bolstered the case for investors' betting the central bank is close to pausing its hiking campaign.
Credit market spreads have widened as investors demand a higher yield on riskier assets, such as corporate bonds. Real yields, which show what investors stand to earn on Treasuries when inflation is stripped out, stand near 15-year highs, while the Goldman Sachs financial conditions index was recently at its highest level in nearly a year.
There has been little of the chaotic trading or economic pain that would suggest tighter financial conditions are severely denting investors’ risk appetite to the point of spurring a sustained rally in bonds, said Edward Al-Hussainy, senior currency and rates analyst at Columbia Threadneedle. In addition to a resilient economy, factors that have pushed yields to fresh highs in recent weeks could keep pressuring markets regardless of a possible Fed pause.
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