The outlook for sales of electric vehicles—and the lithium that goes into their batteries—is headed for a foggy patch. One analyst downgraded two large lithium miners with an eye on disruption to the commodity’s supply/demand balance.
“During the next 12 to 24 months, lithium markets may face a wide range of challenges that will combine to slow lithium demand growth at the same time lithium supply increases are going to ramp up,” wrote Neivert. Overall, he has taken down his estimate for lithium demand for EVs in 2030 by roughly 15%. Practically speaking, that means very roughly that 40 million or 42 million battery-electric vehicles, or BEVs, will be sold in 2030, down about 8 million versus prior expectations. That is still up about fivefold compared with forecast 2023 BEV sales.
Lithium producers, and the commodity, have had a tough years. Increasing supply wasn’t the issue. High lithium prices drove lithium buyers to work off inventories, reducing demand for new lithium product.
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