after the closing bell on Tuesday, and despite the big EPS beat and better gross margins, the stock fell 10% as investors realized that the turnaround is in it’s infancy and there’s a lot of work to be done.1.) EPS and revenue estimates were cut sharply after Nike withdrew guidance for fiscal ’25 ;
3) SG&A expenses have declined 7% and 9% y-o-y in the last two quarters although as a percentage of revenue at 24%’ish SG&A looks to be a little high relative to its 21% – 22% range during normal periods. The pulling of the ’25 revenue and EPS guidance by Matt Friend was probably a nod to Elliott Hill, the new CEO and returning Nike employee, as it gives Elliott a clean slate to set his own guidance and keep expectations reasonable.
Turnarounds are tough. Many do not succeed, but I think Nike has the right guy for the job. This blog has been following Nike since the mid-1990’s and the “brown shoe craze” that torpedoed Nike’s stock in 1997, resulted in the stock not seeing an all-time high until 2002, 2003. Now 2001 and 2002 were tough markets for growth stocks so the stock treaded water until the SP 500 saw a strong rally in 2003 , but once Nike broke out it kept going.
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