The metal’s price has surged fivefold in the past year, reflecting mounting worries about availability. For years, batteries and EVs have become cheaper to make as the technology improved and production stepped up. But now there’s a risk that rising costs of raw materials—and lithium in particular—could hobble the transition just as momentum picks up.
The gulf between forecasts reflects lithium’s status as a small market on the cusp of seismic expansion, with the average of the six estimates suggesting annual growth of more than 20 percentfor both supply and demand between 2021 and 2025. That compares with typical growth rates of 2 percent-4 percentin larger and mature markets like copper, where surpluses and deficits usually equal a fraction of demand.
It has spent years experimenting with different chemical compounds to minimize use of other battery metals like cobalt—which is sometimes mined in unethical conditions—while boosting usage of abundant elements like iron. With lithium at the core of virtually every battery technology in commercial use and development, higher prices could quickly start to bite.
“There’s a complete over optimism about the responsiveness of supply in the lithium market,” said Andrew Miller, chief operating officer at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. “It’s very hard to see how it’s going to accelerate at the speed that the battery market and electric vehicles are accelerating.”
History shows that even current heavyweight lithium miners like Ganfeng Lithium Co., Albemarle Corp., SQM and Livent Corp. should be cautious. A spike in prices a few years ago quickly unraveled as producers flooded the market. Some analysts warn it could happen again.
Solid state battery will be the future.