What an inverted yield curve says about the stock market and recessions

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A closely watched measure of the Treasury yield curve briefly inverts, underlining recession worries. Here's what it means for the stock market.

Blink and you missed it, but the yield on the 2-year Treasury note briefly traded above the yield on the 10-year note Tuesday afternoon, briefly inverting the yield curve and triggering recession warning bells.Data shows that it hasn’t paid in the past to abandon stocks the moment the Treasury...

“For example, investors who sold when the yield curve first inverted on Dec. 14, 1988, missed a subsequent 34% gain in the S&P 500 index,” Levitt wrote. “Those who sold when it happened again on May 26, 1998, missed out on 39% additional upside to the market,” he said. “In fact, the median return of the S&P 500 index from the date in each cycle when the yield curve inverts to the market peak is 19%.

Which curve? An inversion of the 2-year TMUBMUSD02Y /10-year TMUBMUSD10Y measure of the yield curve has preceded all six recessions since 1978, with just one false positive, said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird, in a Monday note. “The remarkable thing is that the two have always gone hand in hand directionally until around December 2021 when 3m/10s started to steepen as 2s/10s collapsed,” said Jim Reid, strategist at Deutsche Bank, in a Tuesday note .

 

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did GPT3 select this stock image? 😆

Nothing, actually, most of the global fed actions take about a year to work

That yield curve is shreddin!

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